A Five-Year-Ahead Bankruptcy Prediction: the Case of Tehran Stock Exchange

تحقیقات مالی

Ahmad Asadzadeh¹  Hossein Panahi¹  Alireza Jalili Marand² 

[1] استادیار اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد مدیریت و بازرگانی، دانشگاه تبریز، ایران;دانشجوی دکترای علوم اقتصادی، اقتصاد مدیریت و بازرگانی، دانشگاه تبریز، ایران‌;

关键词: bankruptcy;    altman’s z-score model;    financial ratios;    logit, probit;   

DOI  :  10.22059/jfr.2014.51840

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

This study predicts corporate bankruptcy five years before its occurrence using financial ratios introduced in Altman’s z-score model and current ratio. Three estimation methods namely; liner probability, Logit and Probit models have chosen for model estimation. The sample contains 134 companies in Tehran Stock Exchange during 2003. The precision of prediction of the estimated models for the main sample is about 78 percent. The Logit model provides the most accurate of out-of-sample prediction, with 75 percent precision.
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【 授权许可】

Unknown