A Decoupling Strategy for Reliability Analysis of Multidisciplinary System with Aleatory and Epistemic Uncertainties

Applied Sciences

Wenting Xu¹  Chao Fu²  Jihong Liu² 

[1] Beijing Institute of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering, Beijing 100072, China;School of Mechanical Engineering and Automation, Beihang University, Beijing 100191, China;

关键词: mixed uncertainties quantification;    multidisciplinary analysis;    reliability analysis;    convex set theory;   

DOI  :  10.3390/app11157008

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

In reliability-based multidisciplinary design optimization, both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties may exist in multidisciplinary systems simultaneously. The uncertainty propagation through coupled subsystems makes multidisciplinary reliability analysis computationally expensive. In order to improve the efficiency of multidisciplinary reliability analysis under aleatory and epistemic uncertainties, a comprehensive reliability index that has clear geometric meaning under multisource uncertainties is proposed. Based on the comprehensive reliability index, a sequential multidisciplinary reliability analysis method is presented. The method provides a decoupling strategy based on performance measure approach (PMA), probability theory and convex model. In this strategy, the probabilistic analysis and convex analysis are decoupled from each other and performed sequentially. The probabilistic reliability analysis is implemented sequentially based on the concurrent subspace optimization (CSSO) and PMA, and the non-probabilistic reliability analysis is replaced by convex model extreme value analysis, which improves the efficiency of multidisciplinary reliability analysis with aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. A mathematical example and an engineering application are demonstrated to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.

【 授权许可】

Unknown