Mathematical assessment of the impact of cohort vaccination on pneumococcal carriage and serotype replacement

Journal of Biological Dynamics

Abba B. Gumel¹  Jemal Mohammed-Awel²  Elamin H. Elbasha³  Tufail M. Malik³ 

[1] Arizona State University;Department of Mathematics, Valdosta State University;Merck & Co. Inc., 2000 Galloping Hill Road, Kenilworth, NJ, USA;

关键词: streptococcus pneumoniae;    pneumococcal carriage;    serotype replacement;    carriage-free equilibrium;    competitive exclusion;    co-colonization;   

DOI  :  10.1080/17513758.2021.1884760

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

Although pneumococcal vaccines are quite effective in reducing disease burden, factors such as imperfect vaccine efficacy and serotype replacement present an important challenge against realizing direct and herd protection benefits of the vaccines. In this study, a novel mathematical model is designed and used to describe the dynamics of two Streptococcus pneumoniae (SP) serotypes, in response to the introduction of a cohort vaccination program which targets one of the two serotypes. The model is fitted to a pediatric SP carriage prevalence data from Atlanta, GA. The model, which is rigorously analysed to investigate the existence and asymptotic stability properties of the associated equilibria (in addition to exploring conditions for competitive exclusion), is simulated to assess the impact of vaccination under different levels of serotype-specific competition and illustrate the phenomenon of serotype replacement. The calibrated model is used to forecast the carriage prevalence in the pediatric cohort over 30 years.

【 授权许可】

Unknown