期刊论文详细信息
Atmosphere
Climate Trends and Extremes in the Indus River Basin, Pakistan: Implications for Agricultural Production
Mina Dowlatchahi1  Jorge Alvar-Beltrán1  Ana Magali Carrera Heureux1  Maria Raffaella Vuolo1  Robina Wahaj1  Mariko Fujisawa1  Mehwish Ali2  Hideki Kanamaru3  Rodrigo Manzanas4  Jose Manuel Gutiérrez5  Muhammad Afzaal6  Burhan Ahmed6  Dildar Kazmi6  Nasrin Salehnia7 
[1] Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations, Headquarters, 00153 Rome, Italy;Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations, Pakistan Office, Islamabad 1476, Pakistan;Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations, Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific, Bangkok 10200, Thailand;Meteorology Group, Departamento de Matemática Aplicada y Ciencias de la Computación, Universidad de Cantabria, 39005 Santander, Spain;Meteorology Group, Instituto de Física de Cantabria, CSIC-Universidad de Cantabria, 39005 Santander, Spain;Pakistan Meteorological Department, Islamabad 1214, Pakistan;School of Earth and Environmental Science, Seoul National University, Seoul 08826, Korea;
关键词: climate change impacts;    extremes;    trend analysis;    food security;    agriculture;    Pakistan;   
DOI  :  10.3390/atmos13030378
来源: DOAJ
【 摘 要 】

Historical and future projected changes in climatic patterns over the largest irrigated basin in the world, the Indus River Basin (IRB), threaten agricultural production and food security in Pakistan, in particular for vulnerable farming communities. To build a more detailed understanding of the impacts of climate change on agriculture s in the IRB, the present study analyzes (1) observed trends in average temperature, precipitation and related extreme indicators, as well as seasonal shifts over a recent historical period (1997–2016); and (2) statistically downscaled future projections (up to 2100) from a set of climate models in conjunction with crop-specific information for the four main crops of the IRB: wheat, cotton, rice and sugarcane. Key findings show an increasing trend of about over 0.1 °C/year in observed minimum temperature across the study area over the historical period, but no significant trend in maximum temperature. Historical precipitation shows a positive annual increase driven mainly by changes in August and September. Future projections highlight continued warming resulting in critical heat thresholds for the four crops analyzed being increasingly exceeded into the future, in particular in the Kharif season. Concurrently, inter-annual rainfall variability is projected to increase up to 10–20% by the end of the 21st century, augmenting uncertainty of water availability in the basin. These findings provide insight into the nature of recent climatic shifts in the IRB and emphasize the importance of using climate impact assessments to develop targeted investments and efficient adaptation measures to ensure resilience of agriculture in Pakistan into the future.

【 授权许可】

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