Study of mesoscale NDVI prediction models in arid and semiarid regions of China under changing environments

Ecological Indicators

Shuping Du¹  Yibo Ding¹  Fengyu Li²  Xinglong Gong² 

[1]Civil Engineering, Northeast Agricultural University, 150030 Harbin, China

[2]

[3]School of Water Conservancy &

关键词: Changing climate;    Arid and semiarid regions in China;    Mesoscale NDVI prediction;    RCMs;    Vegetation dynamic analysis;   

DOI  :  

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

Currently, studies analysing the relationship between climatic factors and vegetation may present some problems, including considering insufficient spatiotemporal characteristics, contradictory results and deficiencies in reflecting vegetation changes in the future. To address this, we first analysed the spatiotemporal characteristics of the impact of climatic factors on the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) using a multiple regression model constructed from the perspective of water deficit. Second, the two carbon emission scenarios provided by Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) were combined to predict the future vegetation conditions in China. Finally, trend analysis, Sen's slope and cycle analysis methods were employed to explore the trend of the NDVI and its spatiotemporal characteristics in the arid and semiarid regions of China. The results show that the impact of climate change on vegetation possesses distinct spatiotemporal characteristics, and the influences are different depending on the month and location. Vegetation has greened in most arid and semiarid areas of China during historical periods. In the future, NDVI variation will show a fluctuating tendency, and increasing and declining trends for the NDVI will alternately occur monthly. Although both precipitation and temperature will increase in the future, spring vegetation will be threatened by stress in some areas due to severe drought caused by the increase in evaporation, which is caused by increasing temperature. The impact of climatic factors on the amplitude and cycle of vegetation type zones varies monthly. The impact of carbon concentration on the NDVI in vegetation type zones was not significant but was relatively large in some areas. The influence of the carbon concentration on the NDVI cycle is different each month. Carbon concentration basically has no effect on amplitude.

【 授权许可】

Unknown