Mass Balance Sensitivity and Future Projections of Rabots Glaciär, Sweden

Climate

Qiong Zhang¹  Laura Ekemar¹  Josefine Axelsson¹  Moon Taveirne¹  Berta González Sánchez¹ 

[1] Department of Physical Geography, Stockholm University, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden;

关键词: glacier mass balance;    climate sensitivity;    mass balance prediction;    Rabots Glaciär;   

DOI  :  10.3390/cli9080126

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

Glacier mass balance is heavily influenced by climate, with responses of individual glaciers to various climate parameters varying greatly. In northern Sweden, Rabots Glaciär’s mass balance has decreased since it started being monitored in 1982. To relate Rabots Glaciär’s mass balance to changes in climate, the sensitivity to a range of parameters is computed. Through linear regression of mass balance with temperature, precipitation, humidity, wind speed and incoming radiation the climate sensitivity is established and projections for future summer mass balance are made. Summer mass balance is primarily sensitive to temperature at −0.31 m w.e. per °C change, while winter mass balance is mainly sensitive to precipitation at 0.94 m w.e. per % change. An estimate using summer temperature sensitivity projects a dramatic decrease in summer mass balance to −3.89 m w.e. for the 2091–2100 period under climate scenario RCP8.5. With large increases in temperature anticipated for the next century, more complex modelling studies of the relationship between climate and glacier mass balance is key to understanding the future development of Rabots Glaciär.

【 授权许可】

Unknown