Regional-Level Carbon Emissions Modelling and Scenario Analysis: A STIRPAT Case Study in Henan Province, China

Sustainability

Jianjian He¹  Bo Pang¹  Yanyan Li¹  Pengyan Zhang¹  Xin Hong²  Yu Liu³  Chengzhe Qin⁴  Wei Zhang⁵ 

[1] College of Environment and Planning, Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan 475004, China;Department of Geography, Kent State University, Kent, OH 42240, USA;Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China;School of Economic, Political and Policy Sciences, The University of Texas at Dallas, Richardson, TX 75080, USA;State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Environmental Planning and Policy Simulation, Chinese Academy for Environmental Planning, Beijing 100012, China;

关键词: carbon emissions;    energy consumption;    STIRPAT model;    driving factors;    scenario predictions;   

DOI  :  10.3390/su9122342

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

Global warming has brought increased attention to the relationship between carbon emissions and economic development. Research on the driving factors of carbon emissions from energy consumption can provide a scientific basis for regional energy savings, as well as emissions reduction and sustainable development. Henan Province is a major agricultural province in China, and it is one of most populous provinces. Industrial development and population growth are the causes of carbon emissions. The STIRPAT model was conducted for analyzing carbon emissions and the driving factors for future carbon emission in Henan Province. The results show that: carbon emissions and energy consumption in Henan Province presented a rising trend from 1995 to 2014; Energy consumption due to population growth is the main contributor to carbon emissions in Henan Province. As every 1% increase in the population, GDP per-capita, energy intensity, and the level of urbanization development will contribute to the growth of emissions by 1.099, 0.193, 0.043, and 0.542%, respectively. The optimization of the industrial structure can reduce carbon emissions in Henan Province, as suggested by the results, when the tertiary sector increased by more than 1%, the total energy consumption of carbon emissions reduced by 1.297%. The future pattern of carbon emissions in Henan Province is predicted to increase initially and then follows by a decreasing trend, according to scenario analysis; and maintaining a low population growth rate, and a high growth rate of GDP per-capita and technical level is the best mode for social and economic development.

【 授权许可】

Unknown