Using Comprehensive Scenarios to Identify Social–Ecological Threats to Salmon in the Kenai River Watershed, Alaska

Sustainability

Jamie Trammell¹  Meagan Krupa¹  Paula Williams²  Andrew Kliskey² 

[1] Alaska Center for Conservation Science, University of Alaska, Anchorage, AK 99508, USA;Center for Resilient Communities, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID 83844, USA;

关键词: alternative futures;    salmon;    scenarios;    social–ecological systems;    stakeholders;    watershed management;   

DOI  :  10.3390/su13105490

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

Environmental changes caused by climate change in Alaska pose a serious threat to the food, energy and water systems that support the culturally diverse communities statewide. The fishing industry, watershed managers and other stakeholders struggle with understanding and predicting the rates, magnitude and location of changes occurring in their regions primarily because of the significant range of uncertainty inherent in these changes. With the guidance of stakeholders, we demonstrate a scenario analysis methodology to elucidate the interactions among various components and uncertainties within the food, energy and water systems of the Kenai River Watershed. Alternative scenario analysis provided stakeholders with a venue and process to consider plausible futures in which rates of change in critical uncertainties were modeled to elucidate potential responses. Critical uncertainties ranged from climatic impacts on freshwater systems, to new energy development proposals, to changes in sport and personal use fisheries. Working together, stakeholders developed narratives that reflected different combinations of future uncertainty to guide potential management actions now and in the future. Five scenarios were developed by stakeholders that capture the complex interactions in the Kenai River Watershed as a social–ecological system. This process provides a way for managers and stakeholders to plan for the future in a richer way than extrapolating trends for obvious drivers of change. We present this framework as a platform for integrating climate, landscape and cultural change data into actionable decisions, crafted by stakeholders, to improve future food, energy and water resource management at the watershed scale.

【 授权许可】

Unknown