Development of Fragility Curves for Piping and Slope Stability of River Levees

Water

Nicola Rossi¹  Mario Bačić¹  MehoSaša Kovačević¹  Lovorka Librić¹ 

[1] Faculty of Civil Engineering, University of Zagreb, 10000 Zagreb, Croatia;

关键词: levee;    slope stability;    piping;    overtopping;    fragility curves;    Monte Carlo simulation;   

DOI  :  10.3390/w13050738

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

The design code Eurocode 7 relies on semi-probabilistic calculation procedures, through utilization of the soil parameters obtained by in situ and laboratory tests, or by the means of transformation models. To reach a prescribed safety margin, the inherent soil parameter variability is accounted for through the application of partial factors to either soil parameters directly or to the resistance. However, considering several sources of geotechnical uncertainty, including the inherent soil variability, measurement error and transformation uncertainty, full probabilistic analyses should be implemented to directly consider the site-specific variability. This paper presents the procedure of developing fragility curves for levee slope stability and piping as failure mechanisms that lead to larger breaches, where a direct influence of the flood event intensity on the probability of failure is calculated. A range of fragility curve sets is presented, considering the variability of levee material properties and varying durations of the flood event, thus providing crucial insight into the vulnerability of the levee exposed to rising water levels. The procedure is applied to the River Drava levee, a site which has shown a continuous trend of increased water levels in recent years.

【 授权许可】

Unknown