Predicting the Number of Days With Visibility in a Specific Range in Warsaw (Poland) Based on Meteorological and Air Quality Data

Frontiers in Environmental Science

Tomasz Mach¹  Bartosz Szeląg²  Joanna Bihałowicz³  Ewa Anioł⁴  Grzegorz Majewski⁴  Wioletta Rogula-Kozłowska⁵  Anna Dmochowska⁵  Jan Stefan Bihałowicz⁵ 

[1] Faculty of Environmental Engineering, Wrocław University of Science and Technology, Wrocław, Poland;Faculty of Environmental, Geomatic and Energy Engineering, Kielce University of Technology, Kielce, Poland;Faculty of Horticulture, Biotechnology and Landscape Architecture, Warsaw University of Life Sciences – SGGW, Warsaw, Poland;Institute of Environmental Engineering, Warsaw University of Life Sciences – SGGW, Warsaw, Poland;Institute of Safety Engineering, The Main School of Fire Service, Warsaw, Poland;

关键词: atmospheric visibility;    logistic model;    air pollution;    meteorological parameters;    monte carlo methods;    case study;   

DOI  :  10.3389/fenvs.2021.623094

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

Atmospheric visibility is an important parameter of the environment which is dependent on meteorological and air quality conditions. Forecasting of visibility is a complex task due to the multitude of parameters and nonlinear relations between these parameters. In this study, meteorological, air quality, and atmospheric visibility data were analyzed together to demonstrate the capabilities of the multidimensional logistic regression model for visibility prediction. This approach allowed determining independent variables and their significance to the value of the atmospheric visibility in four ranges (i.e., 0–10, 10–20, 20–30, and ≥ 30 km). We proved that the Iman–Conover (IC) method can be used to simulate a time series of meteorological and air quality parameters. The visibility in Warsaw (Poland) is dependent mainly on air temperature and humidity, precipitation, and ambient concentration of PM10. Three logistic models of visibility allowed us to determine precisely the number of days in a month with visibility in a specific range. The sensitivity of the models was between 75.53 and 90.21%, and the specificity 78.51 and 96.65%. The comparison of the theoretical (modeled) with empirical (measured) distribution with the Kolmogorov–Smirnov test yielded p-values always above 0.27 and, in half of the cases, above 0.52.

【 授权许可】

Unknown