Land Use Change to Reduce Freshwater Nitrogen and Phosphorus will Be Effective Even with Projected Climate Change

Water

Josef Hejzlar¹  Simon Groot²  Valesca Harezlak²  Eva Papastergiadou³  Dennis Trolle⁴  Joan Lluís Riera⁵  Sarah J. Halliday⁶  Richard A. Skeffington⁷  Andrew J. Wade⁷  Maria Shahgedanova⁷  Raoul-Marie Couture⁸  Ahti Lepistö⁹  Katri Rankinen⁹  Martin Erlandsson Lampa^1,10  Leah A. Jackson-Blake^1,11  Demetris Psaltopoulos^1,12  Dimitris Skuras^1,13  Paul G. Whitehead^1,14 

[1] Biology Centre of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Institute of Hydrobiology, 37005 České Budějovice, Czech Republic;Deltares, P.O. Box 177, 2600 MH Delft, The Netherlands;Department of Biology, University of Patras, GR26500 Patras, Greece;Department of Ecoscience, Aarhus University, 8660 Silkeborg, Denmark;Department of Evolutionary Biology, Ecology and Environmental Sciences, University of Barcelona, 08028 Barcelona, Spain;Department of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Dundee, Dundee DD1 4HN, UK;Department of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Reading, Reading RG6 6DW, UK;Département de Chimie, Université Laval, Québec, QC G1A 9A9, Canada;Finnish Environment Institute SYKE, FI-00790 Helsinki, Finland;Länsstyrelsen Västmanlands län, 72211 Västerås, Sweden;Norwegian Institute for Water Research NIVA, 0579 Oslo, Norway;School of Economics, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, GR54124 Thessaloniki, Greece;School of Economics, University of Patras, GR26504 Patras, Greece;School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3QY, UK;

关键词: water quality;    eutrophication;    Europe;    Turkey;    river;    lake;   

DOI  :  10.3390/w14050829

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

Recent studies have demonstrated that projected climate change will likely enhance nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) loss from farms and farmland, with the potential to worsen freshwater eutrophication. Here, we investigate the relative importance of the climate and land use drivers of nutrient loss in nine study catchments in Europe and a neighboring country (Turkey), ranging in area from 50 to 12,000 km². The aim was to quantify whether planned large-scale, land use change aimed at N and P loss reduction would be effective given projected climate change. To this end, catchment-scale biophysical models were applied within a common framework to quantify the integrated effects of projected changes in climate, land use (including wastewater inputs), N deposition, and water use on river and lake water quantity and quality for the mid-21st century. The proposed land use changes were derived from catchment stakeholder workshops, and the assessment quantified changes in mean annual N and P concentrations and loads. At most of the sites, the projected effects of climate change alone on nutrient concentrations and loads were small, whilst land use changes had a larger effect and were of sufficient magnitude that, overall, a move to more environmentally focused farming achieved a reduction in N and P concentrations and loads despite projected climate change. However, at Beyşehir lake in Turkey, increased temperatures and lower precipitation reduced water flows considerably, making climate change, rather than more intensive nutrient usage, the greatest threat to the freshwater ecosystem. Individual site responses did however vary and were dependent on the balance of diffuse and point source inputs. Simulated lake chlorophyll-a changes were not generally proportional to changes in nutrient loading. Further work is required to accurately simulate the flow and water quality extremes and determine how reductions in freshwater N and P translate into an aquatic ecosystem response.

【 授权许可】

Unknown