Estimation of Daily Reproduction Numbers during the COVID-19 Outbreak

Computation

Florence Thuderoz¹  Kayode Oshinubi¹  Hervé Seligmann¹  Jacques Demongeot¹  Mustapha Rachdi¹  Jules Waku² 

[1] Laboratory AGEIS EA 7407, Team Tools for e-Gnosis Medical & Labcom CNRS/UGA/OrangeLabs Telecom4Health, Faculty of Medicine, University Grenoble Alpes (UGA), 38700 La Tronche, France;UMMISCO UMI IRD 209 & LIRIMA, University of Yaoundé I, P.O. Box 337, Yaoundé 999108, Cameroon;

关键词: daily reproduction number;    COVID-19 outbreak;    discrete epidemic growth equation;    discrete deconvolution;    COVID-19 in several countries;   

DOI  :  10.3390/computation9100109

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

(1) Background: The estimation of daily reproduction numbers throughout the contagiousness period is rarely considered, and only their sum R₀ is calculated to quantify the contagiousness level of an infectious disease. (2) Methods: We provide the equation of the discrete dynamics of the epidemic’s growth and obtain an estimation of the daily reproduction numbers by using a deconvolution technique on a series of new COVID-19 cases. (3) Results: We provide both simulation results and estimations for several countries and waves of the COVID-19 outbreak. (4) Discussion: We discuss the role of noise on the stability of the epidemic’s dynamics. (5) Conclusions: We consider the possibility of improving the estimation of the distribution of daily reproduction numbers during the contagiousness period by taking into account the heterogeneity due to several host age classes.

【 授权许可】

Unknown