Lagged Association between Climate Variables and Hospital Admissions for Pneumonia in South Africa

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health

Rajen N. Naidoo¹  Thandi Kapwata²  Angela Mathee²  Zamantimande Kunene²  Caradee Y. Wright³  Richard W. Morris⁴  Hugo Pedder⁴  Guy Howard⁵ 

[1] Discipline of Occupational and Environmental Health, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban 4001, South Africa;Environment and Health Research Unit, South African Medical Research Council, Johannesburg 2028, South Africa;Environment and Health Research Unit, South African Medical Research Council, Pretoria 0084, South Africa;Population Health Sciences, University of Bristol, Canynge Hall, Bristol BS8 2PN, UK;School of Civil, Aerospace and Mechanical Engineering, University Walk, Bristol BS8 1TR, UK;

关键词: climate change;    distributed non-linear lag model;    environmental health;    public health;    respiratory disease;    pneumonia;   

DOI  :  10.3390/ijerph18126191

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

Pneumonia is a leading cause of hospitalization in South Africa. Climate change could potentially affect its incidence via changes in meteorological conditions. We investigated the delayed effects of temperature and relative humidity on pneumonia hospital admissions at two large public hospitals in Limpopo province, South Africa. Using 4062 pneumonia hospital admission records from 2007 to 2015, a time-varying distributed lag non-linear model was used to estimate temperature-lag and relative humidity-lag pneumonia relationships. Mean temperature, relative humidity and diurnal temperature range were all significantly associated with pneumonia admissions. Cumulatively across the 21-day period, higher mean daily temperature (30 °C relative to 21 °C) was most strongly associated with a decreased rate of hospital admissions (relative rate ratios (RR): 0.34, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.14–0.82), whereas results were suggestive of lower mean daily temperature (12 °C relative to 21 °C) being associated with an increased rate of admissions (RR: 1.27, 95%CI: 0.75–2.16). Higher relative humidity (>80%) was associated with fewer hospital admissions while low relative humidity (<30%) was associated with increased admissions. A proportion of pneumonia admissions were attributable to changes in meteorological variables, and our results indicate that even small shifts in their distributions (e.g., due to climate change) could lead to substantial changes in their burden. These findings can inform a better understanding of the health implications of climate change and the burden of hospital admissions for pneumonia now and in the future.

【 授权许可】

Unknown