Adaptation Strategies under Climate Change for Sustainable Agricultural Productivity in Cambodia

Sustainability

JongAhn Chun¹  Sanai Li¹  Hojeong Park²  Jeonghyun Kim³ 

[1] APEC Climate Center, 12 Centum 7-ro, Haeundae-gu, Busan 48058, Korea;Department of Food and Resource Economics, Korea University, Seoul 02841, Korea;School of Media and Communication, Korea University, Seoul 02841, Korea;

关键词: real options analysis;    GLAM-Rice;    climate change;    rice yields;    food security;    irrigation;   

DOI  :  10.3390/su10124537

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

Since the Cambodian economy is largely dependent on agricultural production, it is important to understand the effects of climate change on rice production, the primary staple crop of Cambodia. This study assessed the economic impacts of climate change in Cambodia to provide an appropriate set of policy suggestions that could lead to sustainable agricultural productivity and economic growth. The results from the GLAM-Rice crop model and various climate models indicate that Cambodia will be severely affected by climate change, which will lead to lower rice production and economic growth. The changes in rice yield under the RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5 baseline scenarios reduced the GDP by 8.16% and 10.57%, respectively. By employing an investment model based on a real options framework, the economic effects and feasibility of adaptation strategies such as irrigation and adjustment of planting dates are identified. The analysis indicates that irrigation is a feasible option and the most efficacious strategy to reduce the negative impacts of climate change for the agricultural sector. The index of economic feasibility for irrigation, defined by the ratio of the current realized agriculture value-added to the identified threshold, is 0.6343 and 0.8803 under the RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5 baseline scenarios, respectively. The results suggest that the priority choice for adaptation measure be in order of irrigation, 20-day later adjustment, and 20-day earlier adjustment.

【 授权许可】

Unknown