Relative transmissibility of shigellosis among male and female individuals: a modeling study in Hubei Province, China

Infectious Diseases of Poverty

Yu-Xin Wang¹  Xian-Fa Xuan¹  Qi Chen²  Bin Zhao³  Mikah Ngwanguong Hannah⁴  Ning Wang⁵  Yao Wang⁶  Yi-Chen Chiang⁶  Xing-Chun Liu⁶  Li-Li Pan⁶  Jia Rui⁶  Tian-Mu Chen⁶  Shan-Shan Yu⁶  Ben-Hua Zhao⁶  Ze-Yu Zhao⁶  Mei-Jie Chu⁶  Ran An⁶  Yan-Hua Su⁶ 

[1] Department of Nephrology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Xiamen Medical College;Hubei Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention;Laboratory Department, Xiang’an Hospital of Xiamen University, State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnosis;Medical College, Xiamen University;Respiratory Department, Shanghai General Hospital;State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University;

关键词: Shigellosis;    Transmissibility;    Mathematical model;    Gender;   

DOI  :  10.1186/s40249-020-00654-x

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

Abstract Background Developing countries exhibit a high disease burden from shigellosis. Owing to the different incidences in males and females, this study aims to analyze the features involved in the transmission of shigellosis among male (subscript m) and female (subscript f) individuals using a newly developed sex-based model. Methods The data of reported shigellosis cases were collected from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention in Hubei Province from 2005 to 2017. A sex-based Susceptible–Exposed–Infectious/Asymptomatic–Recovered (SEIAR) model was applied to explore the dataset, and a sex-age-based SEIAR model was applied in 2010 to explore the sex- and age-specific transmissions. Results From 2005 to 2017, 130 770 shigellosis cases (including 73 981 male and 56 789 female cases) were reported in Hubei Province. The SEIAR model exhibited a significant fitting effect with the shigellosis data (P <  0.001). The median values of the shigellosis transmission were 2.3225 × 108 for SAR mm (secondary attack rate from male to male), 2.5729 × 108 for SAR mf , 2.7630 × 10-8 for SAR fm , and 2.1061 × 10-8 for SAR ff . The top five mean values of the transmission relative rate in 2010 (where the subscript 1 was defined as male and age ≤ 5 years, 2 was male and age 6 to 59 years, 3 was male and age ≥ 60 years, 4 was female and age ≤ 5 years, 5 was female and age 6 to 59 years, and 6 was male and age ≥ 60 years) were 5.76 × 10-8 for β 61, 5.32 × 10-8 for β 31, 4.01 × 10-8 for β 34, 7.52 × 10-9 for β 62, and 6.04 × 10-9 for β 64. Conclusions The transmissibility of shigellosis differed among male and female individuals. The transmissibility between the genders was higher than that within the genders, particularly female-to-male transmission. The most important route in children (age ≤ 5 years) was transmission from the elderly (age ≥ 60 years). Therefore, the greatest interventions should be applied in females and the elderly.

【 授权许可】

Unknown