Resilience Dynamic Assessment Based on Precursor Events: Application to Ship LNG Bunkering Operations

Sustainability

Andrea P. Reverberi¹  Tomaso Vairo²  Bruno Fabiano²  Paola Gualeni³ 

[1] DCCI, Chemistry and Industrial Chemistry Department, Genoa University, Via Dodecaneso 31, 16146 Genoa, Italy;DICCA, Civil, Chemical and Environmental Engineering Department, Genoa University, Via Opera Pia 15, 16145 Genoa, Italy;DITEN, Electrical, Electronics and Telecommunication Engineering and Naval Architecture Department, Genoa University, Via Opera Pia 11A, 16145 Genoa, Italy;

关键词: Bayesian inference;    decision support system;    dynamic risk management;    LNG ship propulsion;    resilience engineering;   

DOI  :  10.3390/su13126836

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

The focus of the present paper is the development of a resilience framework suitable to be applied in assessing the safety of ship LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) bunkering process. Ship propulsion considering LNG as a possible fuel (with dual fuel marine engines installed on board) has favored important discussions about the LNG supply chain and delivery on board to the ship power plant. Within this context, a resilience methodological approach is outlined, including a case study application, to demonstrate its actual effectiveness. With specific reference to the operative steps for LNG bunkering operations in the maritime field, a dynamic model based on Bayesian inference and MCMC simulations can be built, involving the probability of operational perturbations, together with their updates based on the hard (failures) and soft (process variables deviations) evidence emerging during LNG bunkering operations. The approach developed in this work, based on advanced Markov Models and variational fitting algorithms, has proven to be a useful and flexible tool to study, analyze and verify how much the perturbations of systems and subsystems can be absorbed without leading to failure.

【 授权许可】

Unknown