Socioeconomic Development, Demographic Dynamics and Forest Fires in Italy, 1961–2017: A Time-Series Analysis

Sustainability

Luca Salvati¹  Andrea Colantoni²  Ilaria Zambon²  Margherita Carlucci³ 

[1]Council for Agricultural Research and Economics (CREA), Viale Santa Margherita 80, I-52100 Arezzo, Italy

[2]Department of Agricultural and Forestry Sciences (DAFNE), Tuscia University, Via San Camillo de Lellis, I-01100 Viterbo, Italy

[3]Department of Social and Economic Science, University of Rome La Sapienza, Piazzale A. Moro 5, I-00185 Rome, Italy

关键词: fire history;    indicators;    exploratory data analysis;    Italy;   

DOI  :  10.3390/su11051305

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

Empirical studies investigating long-term trends in wildfires’ frequency and severity have been relatively scarce in Europe. Number of fire events, total burnt area and average fire size were studied between 1961 and 2017 in Italy with the aim to identify homogeneous time periods with similar wildfire frequency and severity and correlate them with the background socioeconomic context. Fire attributes had a diverging behavior over time: the number of fires was the highest in the 1970s and the early 1980s; total burnt area was relatively more constant over time with a peak in the 1980s; and, finally, average fire size decreased quite homogeneously from the peak observed in the 1960s and early 1970s. The number of fires and average fire size were significantly influenced by the value of the same variable one year before. Investigating long-term historical outlines of forest fires, a mixed approach based on time-series statistical analysis, multivariate techniques and regressive models intended to define changes in fire regimes and socioeconomic development. In fact, the comparative valuation of the socioeconomic aspects and wildfire trends can reveal a key step to recognizing mitigation and preventive possibilities. Through a multivariate analysis, a substantial difference in the socioeconomic profile can emerge by decade, evidencing a (more or less) rapid socioeconomic development in relation to the evolution of forest fires in Italy.

【 授权许可】

Unknown