Anthropogenic Influences on 2019 July Precipitation Extremes Over the Mid–Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River

Frontiers in Environmental Science

Xuewei Fan¹  Delei Li²  Miguel Angel Rico-Ramirez³  Yiheng Chen³  Zhijun Huang⁴  Yan Yan⁴  Nergui Nanding⁴  Huan Wu⁴  Xuan Wang⁵  Fraser C. Lott⁶  Buwen Dong⁷  Fangxing Tian⁷  Rouke Li⁸  Simon F. B. Tett⁹  Yang Chen^1,10 

[1] 0State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China;CAS Key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Waves, Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao, China;Department of Civil Engineering, University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom;Guangdong Province Key Laboratory for Climate Change and Natural Disaster Studies, School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China;Key Laboratory of Mesoscale Severe Weather, School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China;Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom;National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom;SKLLQG, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi’an, China;School of Geosciences, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom;State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China;

关键词: precipitation extreme events;    climate change;    Yangtze (Changjiang) catchment;    attribution studies;    anthropogenic influence;   

DOI  :  10.3389/fenvs.2020.603061

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

Understanding the driving factors for precipitation extremes matters for adaptation and mitigation measures against the changing hydrometeorological hazards in Yangtze River basin, a habitable area that provides water resources for domestic, farming, and industrial needs. However, the region is naturally subject to major floods linked to monsoonal heavy precipitation during May–September. This study aims to quantify anthropogenic influences on the changing risk of 2-week-long precipitation extremes such as the July 2019 extreme cases, as well as events of shorter durations, over the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River basin (MLYRB). Precipitation extremes with different durations ranging from 1-day to 14-days maximum precipitation accumulations are investigated. Gridded daily precipitations based on nearly 2,400 meteorological stations across China are used to define maximum accumulated precipitation extremes over the MLYRB in July during 1961–2019. Attribution analysis is conducted by using the Met Office HadGEM3-GA6 modeling system, which comprises two sets of 525-member ensembles for 2019. One is forced with observed sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), sea-ice and all forcings, and the other is forced with preindustrialized SSTs and natural forcings only. The risk ratio between the exceedance probabilities estimated from all-forcing and natural-forcing simulations is calculated to quantify the anthropogenic contribution to the changing risks of the July 2019–like precipitation extremes. The results reveal that anthropogenic warming has reduced the likelihood of 2019-like 14-days heavy precipitation over the mid–lower reaches of the Yangtze River by 20%, but increased that of 2-days extremes by 30%.

【 授权许可】

Unknown