Bayesian Updates for an Extreme Value Distribution Model of Bridge Traffic Load Effect Based on SHM Data

Sustainability

Gengxin Duan¹  Xin Gao¹  Chunguang Lan¹ 

[1] College of Construction Engineering, Jilin University, Changchun 130026, China;

关键词: Bayesian updates;    bridge;    extreme value distribution;    traffic load effect;    structural health monitoring;   

DOI  :  10.3390/su13158631

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

As the distribution function of traffic load effect on bridge structures has always been unknown or very complicated, a probability model of extreme traffic load effect during service periods has not yet been perfectly predicted by the traditional extreme value theory. Here, we focus on this problem and introduce a novel method based on the bridge structural health monitoring data. The method was based on the fact that the tails of the probability distribution governed the behavior of extreme values. The generalized Pareto distribution was applied to model the tail distribution of traffic load effect using the peak-over-threshold method, while the filtered Poisson process was used to model the traffic load effect stochastic process. The parameters of the extreme value distribution of traffic load effect during a service period could be determined by theoretical derivation if the parameters of tail distribution were estimated. Moreover, Bayes’ theorem was applied to update the distribution model to reduce the statistical uncertainty. Finally, the rationality of the proposed method was applied to analyze the monitoring data of concrete-filled steel tube arch bridge suspenders. The results proved that the approach was convenient and found that the extreme value distribution type III might be more suitable as the traffic load effect probability model.

【 授权许可】

Unknown