Characterizing key attributes of COVID-19 transmission dynamics in China's original outbreak: Model-based estimations

Global Epidemiology

Hiam Chemaitelly¹  Laith J. Abu-Raddad²  Shaheen Seedat²  Susanne F. Awad³  Houssein H. Ayoub⁴  Ghina R. Mumtaz⁵  Monia Makhoul⁵ 

[1] Correspondence to: H. H. Ayoub, Department of Mathematics, Statistics, and Physics, Qatar University, P.O. Box 2713, Doha, Qatar.;World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine–Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation – Education City, Doha, Qatar;Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, American University of Beirut, Beirut, Lebanon;Department of Mathematics, Statistics, and Physics, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar;Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation - Education City, Doha, Qatar;

关键词: SARS-CoV-2;    COVID-19;    Coronavirus;    Epidemiology;    China;    Mathematical model;   

DOI  :  

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

A novel coronavirus strain, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), emerged in China. This study aims to characterize key attributes of SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology as the infection emerged in China. An age-stratified mathematical model was constructed to describe transmission dynamics and estimate age-specific differences in biological susceptibility to infection, age-assortativeness in transmission mixing, and transition in rate of infectious contacts (and reproduction number R0) following introduction of mass interventions. The model estimated the infectious contact rate in early epidemic at 0.59 contacts/day (95% uncertainty interval-UI = 0.48–0.71). Relative to those 60–69 years, susceptibility was 0.06 in those ≤19 years, 0.34 in 20–29 years, 0.57 in 30–39 years, 0.69 in 40–49 years, 0.79 in 50–59 years, 0.94 in 70–79 years, and 0.88 in ≥80 years. Assortativeness in transmission mixing by age was limited at 0.004 (95% UI = 0.002–0.008). R0 rapidly declined from 2.1 (95% UI = 1.8–2.4) to 0.06 (95% UI = 0.05–0.07) following interventions' onset. Age appears to be a principal factor in explaining the transmission patterns in China. The biological susceptibility to infection seems limited among children but high among those >50 years. There was no evidence for differential contact mixing by age.

【 授权许可】

Unknown