期刊论文详细信息
Atmosphere
Climate Change in Bosnia and Herzegovina According to Climate Scenario RCP8.5 and Possible Impact on Fruit Production
Tatjana Popov1  Igor Milunovic1  Slobodan Gnjato1  Marko Ivanisevic1  Goran Trbic1  Tihomir Dejanovic1  Vladimir Djurdjevic2 
[1] Faculty of Natural Sciences and Mathematics, University of Banja Luka, 78 000 Banjaluka, Bosnia and Herzegovina;Physical Faculty, University of Belgrade, 11 000 Belgrade, Serbia;
关键词: climate change;    climate models;    Bosnia and Herzegovina;    agriculture;    fruit production;    adaptation;   
DOI  :  10.3390/atmos13010001
来源: DOAJ
【 摘 要 】

This paper presents the results of research on possible climate change in Bosnia and Herzegovina according to the climate scenario RCP8.5 and its potential impact on fruit production. Climate change analyses are based on expected fluctuations in air temperature, precipitation and climate indices. The results indicate pronounced climate change, which refers to an increase in annual temperature to 5 °C, and a decrease in annual precipitation of up to 30% and in the summer season (June, July, and August) and up to 40% by the end of the XXI century. In addition, an increase in the number of summer days and a decrease in the number of days with the appearance of snow can be expected. Reducing the number of days with snow and snow cover can cause a decrease in underground aquifers with water during the winter and spring seasons. These changes can have a serious impact on the problem of drought and water deficit, which can have direct consequences for the agricultural sector in Bosnia and Herzegovina, especially for fruit production. These findings show that fundamental changes in agriculture and an approach to land treatment and water resources management, as well as fruit production planning in changed climatic conditions, are needed.

【 授权许可】

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