CREDIBILITY OF THE CENTRAL BANK AND GDP EXPECTATIONS: An alternative analysis on the Brazilian’s sacrifice rates from 2002 to 2018

Economia & Região

Giovani da Silva Oliveira¹  Ricardo Ramalhete Moreira¹  Renzo Caliman Souza¹  Rafael Barbieri Camatta¹ 

[1] UFES- Brazil;

关键词: credibility;    monetary policy;    brazil;   

DOI  :  10.5433/2317-627X.2020v8n2p211

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

The recent literature on Central Bank credibility points out that an improvement in the latter generates better (a decrease in) sacrifice rates. This paper aimed to analyze whether this effect can be directly observed through GDP expectations. The analysis was based on a VAR model and impulse response functions for Brazil from 2002 to 2018. The results indicated that increases in the Central Bank credibility did not imply short-term (first 12 months) gains in GDP expectations. Nevertheless, after the first year from the credibility shock, GDP expectations show an effective increase, thereby indicating a lower long-term sacrifice rate perception.

【 授权许可】

Unknown