Using paired serology and surveillance data to quantify dengue transmission and control during a large outbreak in Fiji

eLife

Jean-Claude Manuguerra¹  Alasdair D Henderson¹  Eric James Nilles¹  Mike Kama¹  W John Edmunds¹  Maite Aubry²  Colleen L Lau³  Jessica Vanhomwegen³  John Aaskov³  Sebastian Funk³  Adam J Kucharski³  Van-Mai Cao-Lormeau⁴  Stéphane Hué⁴  Conall H Watson⁵  Martin L Hibberd⁶  Oliver J Brady⁷ 

[1] Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom;University of the South Pacific, Suva, Fiji;Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom;Institut Pasteur, Paris, France;National Centre for Communicable Disease Control, Suva, Fiji;Research School of Population Health, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia;Unit of Emerging Infectious Diseases, Institut Louis Malardé, Tahiti, French Polynesia;

关键词: dengue virus;    transmission model;    seroepidemiology;   

DOI  :  10.7554/eLife.34848

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

Dengue is a major health burden, but it can be challenging to examine transmission and evaluate control measures because outbreaks depend on multiple factors, including human population structure, prior immunity and climate. We combined population-representative paired sera collected before and after the 2013/14 dengue-3 outbreak in Fiji with surveillance data to determine how such factors influence transmission and control in island settings. Our results suggested the 10–19 year-old age group had the highest risk of infection, but we did not find strong evidence that other demographic or environmental risk factors were linked to seroconversion. A mathematical model jointly fitted to surveillance and serological data suggested that herd immunity and seasonally varying transmission could not explain observed dynamics. However, the model showed evidence of an additional reduction in transmission coinciding with a vector clean-up campaign, which may have contributed to the decline in cases in the later stages of the outbreak.

【 授权许可】

Unknown