An RVM-Based Model for Assessing the Failure Probability of Slopes along the Jinsha River, Close to the Wudongde Dam Site, China

Sustainability

Jianping Chen¹  Yanyan Li²  Yanjun Shang² 

[1] College of Construction Engineering, Jilin University, Changchun 130026, China;Key Laboratory of Shale Gas and Geoengineering, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China;

关键词: landslide;    relevance vector machine;    influencing factor;    failure probability;   

DOI  :  10.3390/su9010032

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

Assessing the failure potential of slopes is of great significance for land use and management. The objective of this paper is to develop a novel model for evaluating the failure probability of slopes based on a relevance vector machine (RVM), with a special attention to the characteristics of failed slopes along the lower reaches of the Jinsha River, close to the Wudongde dam site. Seven parameters that influence the occurrence of landslides were selected as environmental factors; namely lithology, slope angle, slope height, slope aspect, slope structure, distance from faults, and land use. A total of 55 landslides mapped in the study area were used to train and test the RVM model. The results suggest that the accuracy of the model in predicting the failure probability of slopes, using both training and testing data sets, is very high and deemed satisfactory. To validate the model performance, it was applied to 28 landslide cases identified in the upper reaches of the Jinsha River, where environmental and geological conditions are similar to those of the study area. An accuracy of approximately 92.9% was obtained, which demonstrates that the RVM model has a good generalization performance.

【 授权许可】

Unknown