A new comparative study on the general fractional model of COVID-19 with isolation and quarantine effects

Alexandria Engineering Journal

A. Jajarmi¹  M. Hassan Abadi²  J.J. Nieto³  D. Baleanu⁴  K. Zarghami Vahid⁵ 

[1] Department of Medical Research, China Medical University Hospital, China Medical University, Taichung, Taiwan;Institute of Space Sciences, P.O. Box, MG-23, R 76900 Magurele-Bucharest, Romania;Department of Electrical Engineering, University of Bojnord, P.O. Box, 94531-1339, Bojnord, Iran;Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Arts and Sciences, Çankaya University, 06530 Ankara, Turkey;Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematical Science and Statistics, University of Birjand, Birjand, Iran;

关键词: Fractional calculus;    General fractional derivative;    COVID-19 pandemic;    Isolation and quarantine effects;    Stability analysis;    Modified predictor–corrector method;   

DOI  :  

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

A generalized version of fractional models is introduced for the COVID-19 pandemic, including the effects of isolation and quarantine. First, the general structure of fractional derivatives and integrals is discussed; then the generalized fractional model is defined from which the stability results are derived. Meanwhile, a set of real clinical observations from China is considered to determine the parameters and compute the basic reproduction number, i.e., R0≈6.6361. Additionally, an efficient numerical technique is applied to simulate the new model and provide the associated numerical results. Based on these simulations, some figures and tables are presented, and the data of reported cases from China are compared with the numerical findings in both classical and fractional frameworks. Our comparative study indicates that a particular case of general fractional formula provides a better fit to the real data compared to the other classical and fractional models. There are also some other key parameters to be examined that show the health of society when they come to eliminate the disease.

【 授权许可】

Unknown