Monitoring transmissibility and mortality of COVID-19 in Europe

International Journal of Infectious Diseases

Jing Yuan¹  Gang Lv²  Z. Kevin Lu³  Minghui Li⁴ 

[1] Department of Clinical Pharmacy, Fudan University School of Pharmacy, 826, Zhangheng Road, Shanghai 201203, China;The Eighth Medical Center of the People’s Liberation Army General Hospital, Beijing, China;University of South Carolina, 715 Sumter Street, CLS Building 311, Columbia, SC 29208, USA;University of Tennessee Health Science Center, 881 Madison Avenue, Memphis, TN 38163, USA;

关键词: COVID-19;    Effective reproduction numbers;    Control;    Europe;   

DOI  :  

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

Objectives: As a global pandemic is inevitable, real-time monitoring of transmission is vital for containing the spread of COVID-19. The main objective of this study was to report the real-time effective reproduction numbers (R(t)) and case fatality rates (CFR) in Europe. Methods: Data for this study were obtained mainly from the World Health Organization website, up to March 9, 2020. R(t) were estimated by exponential growth rate (EG) and time-dependent (TD) methods. ‘R0’ package in R was employed to estimate R(t) by fitting the existing epidemic curve. Both the naïve CFR (nCFR) and adjusted CFR (aCFR) were estimated. Results: With the EG method, R(t) was 3.27 (95% confidence interval (CI) 3.17–3.38) for Italy, 6.32 (95% CI 5.72–6.99) for France, 6.07 (95% CI 5.51–6.69) for Germany, and 5.08 (95% CI 4.51–5.74) for Spain. With the TD method, the R value for March 9 was 3.10 (95% CI 2.21–4.11) for Italy, 6.56 (95% CI 2.04–12.26) for France, 4.43 (95% CI 1.83–7.92) for Germany, and 3.95 (95% CI 0–10.19) for Spain. Conclusions: This study provides important findings on the early outbreak of COVID-19 in Europe. Due to the recent rapid increase in new cases of COVID-19, real-time monitoring of the transmissibility and mortality in Spain and France is a priority.

【 授权许可】

Unknown