Risk Management and Adaptation for Extremes and Abrupt Changes in Climate and Oceans: Current Knowledge Gaps

Frontiers in Climate

Evelia Rivera-Arriaga¹  Kathleen L. McInnes²  Laurens M. Bouwer³  So-Min Cheong⁵  Beate M. W. Ratter⁶  Thomas L. Frölicher⁹  Hélène Jacot Des Combes^1,10 

[1] 0Marine Policy and Coastal Management Department, EPOMEX Institute, University of Campeche, Campeche, Mexico;CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Aspendale, VIC, Australia;Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS), Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon, Hamburg, Germany;Climate and Environmental Physics, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland;Department of Geography and Atmospheric Science, University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS, United States;Institute of Coastal Systems Analysis and Modeling, Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon, Geesthacht, Germany;Institute of Geography, Universität Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany;National Disaster Management Office, Majuro, Marshall Islands;Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland;Pacific Center for Environment and Sustainable Development, The University of the South Pacific, Suva, Fiji;

关键词: adaptation;    risk management;    extremes;    abrupt;    compound event;    transformation;   

DOI  :  10.3389/fclim.2021.785641

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

Perspectives for risk management and adaptation have received ample attention in the recent IPCC Special Report on Changes in the Oceans and Cryosphere (SROCC). However, several knowledge gaps on the impacts of abrupt changes, cascading effects and compound extreme climatic events have been identified, and need further research. We focus on specific climate change risks identified in the SROCC report, namely: changes in tropical and extratropical cyclones; marine heatwaves; extreme ENSO events; and abrupt changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Several of the socioeconomic impacts from these events are not yet well-understood, and the literature is also sparse on specific recommendations for integrated risk management and adaptation options to reduce such risks. Also, past research has mostly focussed on concepts that have seen little application to real-world cases. We discuss relevant research needs and priorities for improved social-ecological impact assessment related to these major physical changes in the climate and oceans. For example, harmonised approaches are needed to better understand impacts from compound events, and cascading impacts across systems. Such information is essential to inform options for adaptation, governance and decision-making. Finally, we highlight research needs for developing transformative adaptation options and their governance.

【 授权许可】

Unknown