ГЕОПОЛИТИЧКИTE ФАНТАЗИИ И РАЗРЕШУВАЊЕТО НА КОНФЛИКТИТЕ ВО 21. ВЕК

Bezbednosni Dijalozi

关键词: forecast;    the 21st century;    war;    peace;    national interest;    international law;    the US;    Russia;    China.;   

DOI  :  

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

Nobody can provide a forecast free from political assumptions, nationalstereotypes, myths, phobias, and attitudes deeply rooted in the past. As a result many so called ‘forecasts’ are actually geopolitical fantasies in spite of the announced goals and intentions to identify political, social, demographic,economic, cultural, military tendencies and geopolitical obstacles for a peacefull development. The paper illustrates this idea by the George Friedman book Тhe Next 100 years (2009). Efficiency of conflict-management relies, at leastpartly, on national interests of countries engaged in actions and international law. However, the international law provisions are changing under the pressure of circumstances. To disclose, the national interest is not an easy task either. The recent (2010) Kyrgyz occurrences are taken as an example along with the cases of Kosovo and the 5-day (2008) Georgia-Russia war. The papertouches forecasts of the future of the USA, the EU, Russia and China in the 21st century, the issues of national interests and international law, the Russian reaction of the conflicts recently emerged near its borders.

【 授权许可】

Unknown