METHODS OF FORECASTING OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF THE MARKET OF SANATORIUM SERVICES

Vestnik Novosibirskogo Gosudarstvennogo Universiteta. Seriâ: Socialʹno-Èkonomičeskie Nauki

Oborin M. S.¹ 

[1] Perm Institute (Branch) Russian University of Economics G. V. Plekhanov;

关键词: рекреация;    туризм;    методы прогнозирования;    рынок санаторно-курортных услуг;    прогнозирование;    recreation;    tourism;    forecasting methods;    market of sanatorium services;    forecasting;   

DOI  :  10.25205/1818-7862-2015-15-4-91-101

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

The role of predictive science at a present stage of development is defined. Features of forecasting in relation to difficult social and economic systems are specified. Need of increase of attention of the state to a problem of preservation of health of the nation is proved. Decrease in a role of health resort in the state health system and the decrease in public financing of this area accompanying it is established and proved. Need of studying of current state and development for the future of separate parameters of sanatorium systems and markets is proved. Current state of a question and degree of its study is presented: general condition of a readiness of scope of research; degree of a readiness of scope of research in relation to recreational and improving and sanatorium systems. Terminological components of research are expanded, including concepts methods of forecasting and model of forecasting are opened. The conditions and factors defining specifics of forecasting in the market of sanatorium services as difficult social and economic system are considered. Influence on specifics of forecasting of a factor of the hierarchical structure of the market of sanatorium services is opened. Influence of object and parameters of forecasting for the used forecasting methods is defined. The characteristic of influence on use of methods of forecasting of degree of availability of information is given. On the basis of the analysis of special and scientific literature classification and degree of applicability and priority of methods of forecasting to specifics of the market of sanatorium services, depending on the hierarchical level of the analysis is presented. The matrix of applicability and priority of use of methods of forecasting of the market of sanatorium services as one of components of methodology of the system analysis of current state and development in the future of the sanatorium industry at various hierarchical levels is offered.

【 授权许可】

Unknown