Using Foresight to Gain a Local Perspective on the Future of Ecosystem Services in a Mountain Protected Area in Peru

Mountain Research and Development

María de los Ángeles La Torre-Cuadros¹  Gleni Aracelly Mallma Carrera²  Alexis Nicolás Ibáñez Blancas³ 

[1] [e-mail];[e-mail];Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional Agraria La Molina, Lima 12, Perú and Centro de Investigaciones de Zonas Áridas, Universidad Nacional Agraria La Molina, Jirón Camilo Carrillo 300-A, Lima 11, Perú;

关键词: Andes;    protected areas;    participation;    conservation;    foresight;    ecosystem services;    Peru;   

DOI  :  https://doi.org/10.1659/MRD-JOURNAL-D-17-00090.1

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

Ecosystem services in the mountainous Salinas and Aguada Blanca National Reserve in Peru are under pressure, and perspectives on possible solutions depend on the different stakeholders' understanding of these services and their interests in them. We describe the application of the foresight approach to integrate various stakeholders' perspectives on the future of ecosystem services in the reserve. Ultimately, the purpose of this approach is to achieve an inclusive and viable plan for conservation and management of existing resources. The participatory analysis provided local people's perceptions of bofedal (wetland) and tolar (shrubland) ecosystem services, as well as their assessment of likely scenarios for the future. We identified 2 important factors in the hypotheses the local people provided: extreme events such as water scarcity and drought, and participation of the private sector in water distribution. Participants estimated that water storage and fuel for cooking were likely to have the strongest effects on current and future ecosystem services. Based on this, we jointly developed hypotheses using a stepwise approach and used software to calculate probabilities in a systematic way and produce a series of scenarios. The likelihood of these scenarios was also assessed by groups of stakeholders, yielding 5 scenarios for consideration in designing management plans. Future scenarios are highly dependent on proper management of the bofedal. We conclude that foresight helps to involve local people better in the process of developing viable strategies for the future of the reserve and for the conservation of the natural resources that it harbors.

【 授权许可】

Unknown