The Relationship between River Flow Regimes and Climate Indices of ENSO and IOD on Code River, Southern Indonesia

Water

AdamRus Nugroho¹  Ichiro Tamagawa²  Morihiro Harada² 

[1]Department of Environmental Engineering, Universitas Islam Indonesia, Yogyakarta 55584, Indonesia

[2]River Basin Research Center, Gifu University, Gifu 5011193, Japan

关键词: Code River;    ENSO;    flow regimes;    Indian Ocean dipole;    multiple regression;   

DOI  :  10.3390/w13101375

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

Predicting the streamflow regimes using climate dynamics is important in water resource management. However, in Indonesia, there are few studies targeting climate indices and streamflow. A previous study found difficulty in developing a statistical prediction model for this relationship due to its non-linear nature. This study attempted to address that gap by applying multiple regression (MR) models using second- and third-order polynomial functions to show the non-linear relationship between climate and flow regime indices. First, a correlation analysis was performed to check the variable relationships. There was a good and significant correlation of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with the flow regime indices. Secondly, MR models were developed with the same-time variables. The developed model showed that the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) had the effect of strongly increasing the high flow in La Niña phases. Finally, time-lagged MRs were developed aiming at forecasting. Lagged MR models with six-month leading climate indices demonstrated a relatively good correlation with the observed data (mostly R > 0.700) with moderate accuracy (root mean square error = 44–51%). It suggests that the forecasting of flow regime may be possible using ENSO and IOD indices.

【 授权许可】

Unknown