Qualitative phase space reconstruction analysis of supply-chain inventor time series

South African Journal of Science

Lizhong Wang¹  Chenxi Shao¹  Lipeng Xiao¹  Jinliang Wu¹ 

[1] University of Science and Technology of China;

关键词: data mining;    phase space;    qualitative forecasting;    quantitative forecasting;    supply chain management;   

DOI  :  

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

The economy systems are usually too complex to be analysed, but some advanced methods havebeen developed in order to do so, such as system dynamics modelling, multi-agent modelling,complex adaptive system modelling and qualitative modelling. In this paper, we considered asupply-chain (SC) system including several kinds of products. Using historic suppliers' demanddata, we firstly applied the phase space analysis method and then used qualitative analysis toimprove the complex system's performance. Quantitative methods can forecast the quantitative SCdemands, but they cannot indicate the qualitative aspects of SC, so when we apply quantitativemethods to a SC system we get only numerous data of demand. By contrast, qualitative methods canshow the qualitative change and trend of the SC demand. We therefore used qualitative methodsto improve the quantitative forecasting results. Comparing the quantitative only method and thecombined method used in this paper, we found that the combined method is far more accurate. Notonly is the inventory cost lower, but the forecasting accuracy is also better.

【 授权许可】

Unknown