Mortality Burden of Heatwaves in Sydney, Australia Is Exacerbated by the Urban Heat Island and Climate Change: Can Tree Cover Help Mitigate the Health Impacts?

Atmosphere

Nathan Cooper¹  Yuming Guo¹  Richard A. Broome¹  Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick²  Fei Ji³  Gnanadarsha S. Dissanayake⁴  Gerard Duck⁴  Ying Zhang⁵  Christy Geromboux⁶  Geoffrey G. Morgan⁶  Ivan C. Hanigan⁶  Timothy B. Chaston⁶ 

[1] Centre for Air Pollution, Energy and Health Research (CAR), Sydney, NSW 2037, Australia;School of Science, University of New South Wales, Canberra, ACT 2890, Australia;Science, Economics and Insights Division, Department of Planning and Environment, Sydney, NSW 2150, Australia;Strategic Analysis and Investment Unit, Strategic Reform and Planning Branch, NSW Ministry of Health, Sydney, NSW 2037, Australia;Sydney School of Public Health, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2050, Australia;University Centre for Rural Health, The University of Sydney, Lismore, NSW 2480, Australia;

关键词: global heating;    death;    extreme heat;    urbanization;    greenspace;   

DOI  :  10.3390/atmos13050714

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

Heatwaves are associated with increased mortality and are exacerbated by the urban heat island (UHI) effect. Thus, to inform climate change mitigation and adaptation, we quantified the mortality burden of historical heatwave days in Sydney, Australia, assessed the contribution of the UHI effect and used climate change projection data to estimate future health impacts. We also assessed the potential for tree cover to mitigate against the UHI effect. Mortality (2006–2018) records were linked with census population data, weather observations (1997–2016) and climate change projections to 2100. Heatwave-attributable excess deaths were calculated based on risk estimates from a published heatwave study of Sydney. High resolution satellite observations of UHI air temperature excesses and green cover were used to determine associated effects on heat-related mortality. These data show that >90% of heatwave days would not breach heatwave thresholds in Sydney if there were no UHI effect and that numbers of heatwave days could increase fourfold under the most extreme climate change scenario. We found that tree canopy reduces urban heat, and that widespread tree planting could offset the increases in heat-attributable deaths as climate warming progresses.

【 授权许可】

Unknown