Resolution Dependence of Regional Hydro-Climatic Projection: A Case-Study for the Johor River Basin, Malaysia

Water

Matthew Hawcroft¹  James M. Haywood²  Ju Liang²  Ruslan Rainis³  Wan Ruslan Ismail³  Mou Leong Tan³  Fei Zhang⁴ 

[1] Centre for Applied Climate Sciences, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, QLD 4350, Australia;College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter EX4 4QE, UK;GeoInformatic Unit, Geography Section, School of Humanities, Universiti Sains Malaysia (USM), Penang 11800, Malaysia;Key Laboratory of Wisdom City and Environmental Modeling of Higher Education Institute, College of Resources and Environment Sciences, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China;

关键词: climate change;    CMIP6;    HighResMIP;    SWAT;    water resource;    resolution;   

DOI  :  10.3390/w13223158

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

High resolution models from the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP), part of CMIP6, have the capacity to allow a better representation of the climate system in tropical regions, but how different model resolutions affect hydrological outputs remains unclear. This research aims to evaluate projections of hydro-climatic change of the Johor River Basin (JRB) in southern Peninsular Malaysia between 1985 to 2015 and 2021 to 2050, focusing on uncertainty quantification of hydrological outputs from low (>1°), medium (0.5° to 1°) and high (≤0.5°) horizontal resolution models. These projections show future increases in annual precipitation of 0.4 to 3.1%, minimum and maximum temperature increases of 0.8 to 0.9 °C and 0.9 to 1.1 °C, respectively. These projected climate changes lead to increases in annual mean streamflow of 0.9% to 7.0% and surface runoff of 7.0% to 20.6% in the JRB. These annual mean changes are consistent with those during the wet period (November to December), e.g., streamflow increases of 4.9% to 10.8% and surface runoff of 28.8 to 39.9% in December. Disagreement in the direction of change is found during the dry seasons, (February to March and May to September), where high resolution models project a decrease in future monthly precipitation and streamflow, whilst increases are projected by the medium- and low-resolution models.

【 授权许可】

Unknown