Sensitivity Study of WRF Simulations over Tanzania for Extreme Events during Wet and Dry Seasons

Atmosphere

Abubakar Lungo¹  Yongkuk Kim²  Meiyan Jiang³  Sangil Kim³  Giphil Cho⁴ 

[1] Central Forecasting Office, Tanzania Meteorological Agency, Dar es Salaam 16103, Tanzania;Department of Mathematics, Kyungpook National University, Daegu 41566, Korea;Department of Mathematics, Pusan National University, Busan 46241, Korea;Finance·Fishery·Manufacture Industrial Mathematics Center on Big Data, Pusan National University, Busan 46241, Korea;

关键词: heavy rainfall;    precipitation forecasting;    wet season;    dry season;    precipitation forecasting;    WRF Model;   

DOI  :  10.3390/atmos11050459

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

Precipitation prediction is important to help mitigate the effects of drought and floods on various social and economic activities. This research is to improve the forecasting skill over Tanzania by providing suitable combinations of physical parameterization schemes and horizontal grid spacing of the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model for daily forecasting over Tanzania. The performance of different schemes on the precipitation systems during the wet and dry seasons over Tanzania is evaluated such that the sensitivity tests was performed for the WRF model at different horizontal resolutions, and for different physical parameterization schemes (convective and cloud microphysics). The results showed that the improved grid spacing was better at completing forecasts during the wet season, but had little significant impacts during the dry season. Model simulations with combinations of Lin et al. microphysics and the multiscale Kain–Fritsch scheme showed greater success during the both seasons; therefore, these combinations were recommended for Tanzania to resolve weather systems during the wet and dry season simulations, respectively.

【 授权许可】

Unknown