Relative Sea-Level Rise and Potential Submersion Risk for 2100 on 16 Coastal Plains of the Mediterranean Sea

Water

Fabrizio Antonioli¹  Giovanni Scardino²  Antonella Marsico²  Giuseppe Mastronuzzi²  Stefano Furlani³  Giovanni Randazzo⁴  Lorenzo Moretti⁵  Marcello Petitta⁵  Gabriele Leoni⁶  Giovanni De Falco⁷  Marco Anzidei⁸  Davide Bonaldo⁹  Sandro Carniel^1,10  Giovanni Scicchitano^1,11  Valeria Lo Presti^1,12 

[1] Associated Researcher Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, 00143 Rome, Italy;Department of Earth and Geoenvironmental Sciences, University of Bari, 70125 Bari, Italy;Department of Mathematics and Geosciences, University of Trieste, 34125 Trieste, Italy;Department of Mathematics, Pysics and Geosciences, MIFT, University of Messina, 98166 Messina, Italy;ENEA, 40129 Bologna, 00123 Rome, Italy;ISPRA, 00144 Roma, Italy;Institute of Anthropic Impacts and Sustainability in Marine Environment—IAS CNR, 09170 Oristano, Italy;National Institute of Geopysics and Volcanomology, 00143 Rome, Italy;National Research Council, Institute of Marine Sciences (CNR-ISMAR), 30122 Venice, Italy;National Research Council, Institute of Polar Science (CNR-ISP), 30122 Venice, Italy;Studio Geologi Associati TST, 95129 Catania, Italy;Studio Tecnico, 90142 Palermo, Italy;

关键词: Mediterranean Sea;    coastal plains;    relative sea-level rise;    2100;    marine submersion;   

DOI  :  10.3390/w12082173

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

The coasts of the Mediterranean Sea are dynamic habitats in which human activities have been conducted for centuries and which feature micro-tidal environments with about 0.40 m of range. For this reason, human settlements are still concentrated along a narrow coastline strip, where any change in the sea level and coastal dynamics may impact anthropic activities. In the frame of the RITMARE and the Copernicus Projects, we analyzed light detection and ranging (LiDAR) and Copernicus Earth Observation data to provide estimates of potential marine submersion for 2100 for 16 small-sized coastal plains located in the Italian peninsula and four Mediterranean countries (France, Spain, Tunisia, Cyprus) all characterized by different geological, tectonic and morphological features. The objective of this multidisciplinary study is to provide the first maps of sea-level rise scenarios for 2100 for the IPCC RCP 8.5 and Rahmstorf (2007) projections for the above affected coastal zones, which are the locations of touristic resorts, railways, airports and heritage sites. On the basis of our model (eustatic projection for 2100, glaciohydrostasy values and tectonic vertical movement), we provide 16 high-definition submersion maps. We estimated a potential loss of land for the above areas of between about 148 km² (IPCC-RCP8.5 scenario) and 192 km² (Rahmstorf scenario), along a coastline length of about 400 km.

【 授权许可】

Unknown