THE ANALYSIS OF THE COMMODITY PRICE FORECASTING SUCCESS CONSIDERING DIFFERENT NUMERICAL MODELS SENSITIVITY TO PROGNOSIS ERROR

Acta Logistica

Marcela Lascsáková¹ 

[1] Technical University of Kosice;

关键词: exponential approximation;    numerical modelling;    price forecasting;    commodity exchange;   

DOI  :  10.22306/al.v3i4.72

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

In the paper the numerical model based on the exponential approximation of commodity stock exchanges was derived. The price prognoses of aluminium on the London Metal Exchange were determined as numerical solution of the Cauchy initial problem for the 1st order ordinary differential equation. To make the numerical model more accurate the idea of the modification of the initial condition value by the stock exchange was realized. The derived numerical model was observed to determine the accuracy of forecast prices with regard to two size setting of the limiting value error causing the modification of the initial condition value by chosen stock exchange. The advantage of chosen sizes of the limiting value error 7 % and 8 % with regard to different lengths of the initial condition drift within movements of aluminium prices was studied. By having analyzed obtained results, it was found out that the limiting value error 7 % was more advantageous for commodity price forecasting.

【 授权许可】

Unknown