Dynamic migration flow modelling

Bezbednosni Dijalozi

Zoran Keković¹  Vladimir Ninković²  Ozren Džigurski² 

[1] Faculty of Security Studies, University Belgrade;Faculty of Security Studies, University of Belgrade;

关键词: migration model;    system dynamics;    simulation model;    risk assessment;    resilience;   

DOI  :  10.47054/SD171-20149n

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

The paper presents a SD model that analyses migrant/refugee flow, taking into account the following parameters: political decisions of the countries on migrant routes (political intervention), socio-economic factors, the porosity of state borders, criminal activities, public opinion, health, climate, and environmental conditions, etc. The model was built and simulations performed using the Vensim modeling tool, the results of which may be used for prediction purposes, creation of migration management scenarios, as well as for the risk and resilience assessment of the migrant routes.

【 授权许可】

Unknown