FINANCIAL BUBBLE FORMATION AT THE GROWTH STAGE OF AN ECONOMIC SYSTEM

Финансы: теория и практика

S. A. Tolkachev¹  A. K. Popov² 

[1] Financial University;State University of Management;

关键词: long waves;    financial bubbles;    total factor performance;    stock indices;    market capitalization;    development of competitive strategies;    the usa economy;   

DOI  :  10.26794/2587-5671-2015-0-2-84-95

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

The paper studies the links between the financial bubble phenomenon manifested by the irrational growth of stock indices and development stages of Kondratiev long waves followed by the investigation of Glazyev technological patterns. The relevance of the paper is predetermined by the predicted transition of the global economy to the growth phase after the end of the current crisis, the new round of education and the deflation of financial bubbles.. The stable trends in the origination and development of financial bubbles within the long wave growth phase are described by an example of the US economy. With the use of economic statistics, the financial bubbles most typical for the growth phase are determined and the reasons for their formation are described. The case study of the US aircraft industry reveals divergent trends in the value of shares of the largest US aircraft maker Boeing and the total factor performance over the industry. On this basis, a time lag is set between the decline in the total performance factors of the 4-th pattern technologies (aircraft making) and the value of shares at the beginning of the 5-th pattern, which proves the supposed presence of a financial bubble. An attempt is made to identify financial bubbles specific for the economic growth phase within the long-wave development. Based on works of C. Perez,Soete and V. E. Dementiev, a retrospective analysis of the US economy so far as relevant to the definition of the periods and reasons for the financial bubble formation is made. The life cycle of an institutional financial bubble is analyzed and a bubble formation diagram in the growth phase is presented. Based on the hypothetic time of the final establishment of the general picture of mainstream technologies, the periodization of the sixth technological pattern stages is forecasted, which can be helpful in the development of the state R&D and innovation policy.

【 授权许可】

Unknown