China: crescimento econômico de longo prazo

Brazilian Journal of Political Economy

卷:26

关键词: China;    long-run economic growth;    time series analysis;   

DOI  :  10.1590/S0101-31572006000300005

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

China: long-run economic growth. The paper aims to understand on theoretical and empirical grounds the main determinants of China´s long run growth. The econometric analysis suggests the exchange rate as the most important variable in explaining China´s economic growth and in a different model specification using growth rates of exports instead of trade openness, the exchange rate remains as the main variable but export performance has almost the same relevance. Exchange rate policy seems to be a direct road to explain economic growth in China and there is no clear sign that China will increase exchange rate flexibility in the same pattern and pace suggested by most trade partners, which cannot be criticized based on China´s own interest in sustaining its export performance and economic growth.

【 授权许可】

Unknown