Short-term prediction of ship motions with consideration of measurement errors

Труды Крыловского государственного научного центра

卷:380

Igor K. Boroday¹ 

[1] Krylov State Research Centre;

关键词: motions;    random process;    short-term prediction;    prediction error;    optimal prediction;    error dispersion;   

DOI  :  10.24937/2542-2324-2017-2-380-9-16

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

Object and purpose of research: Ship motions in irregular waves are random time functions. The purpose of this work is to develop an algorithm that would allow predicting, at any moment, the instantaneous value of the kinematic parameter of motions for a certain future interval (several seconds, in real conditions). The peculiarity of this task is the necessity to take into account the error of the instrumentation measuring ship motions in waves. Materials and methods: The task is solved by means of the methods applied in the theory of random processes, i.e. the extrapolation methods. The extrapolation, i.e. prediction, is optimal when the prediction error is the lowest possible. Technically, optimal extrapolation is the lowest dispersion of the prediction error. Main results: The paper suggests a concrete layout for the algorithm allowing optimal short-term prediction of ship motions, as well as displacements of the specified points of the hull. The paper also illustrates short-term prediction results for linear displacements of the points on the ship deck obtained in the software based on the suggested algorithm. Conclusion: The results of this work are intended for the development of motion preventer, i.e. the system enhancing the safety of onboard machinery and equipment

【 授权许可】

Unknown