Climate estimates for Eastern Amazon with OLAM model

Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia

卷:29

Renato Ramos da Silva¹  Paulo Kuhn²  Daniela dos Santos Ananias³  Maria Isabel Vitorino³ 

[1] Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina;

[2] Universidade Federal do Amazonas;

[3] Universidade Federal do Pará;

关键词: Previsão climática;    OLAM;    precipitação;    leste da Amazônia;   

DOI  :  10.1590/0102-778620130047

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

The OLAM model has as its characteristics the advantage to represent simultaneously the regional and global meteorological phenomena using a refining grid scheme. During REMAM project OLAM was applied for a few case studies with the goal to evaluate its performance to estimate the regional climate for the eastern Amazon during periods of El Niño and La Niña. Case studies were performed for the rainy periods of the years 2010 and 2011 that were driven by distinct oceanic conditions. Initially, the model results were compared with local observations. The results demonstrated that OLAM was able to represent well the major precipitating regions, the diurnal temperature cycle evolution, and the wind dynamics. After that, analysis of the results demonstrated that if we provide good initial conditions and a good representation of the sea surface temperature evolution, OLAM is able to forecast with two or three months in advance if a rainy season would be wet or dry.

【 授权许可】

Unknown