Pushing back the baseline: a novelapproach to detect long-term changesin terrestrial faunal abundance usinghistorical qualitative descriptions

European Journal of Ecology

卷:1

Preece Richard C.¹  Sparks Tim H.¹  McCollin Duncan² 

[1] Department of Zoology,University of Cambridge,Cambridge CB2 3EJ, UK;

[2] Landscape and BiodiversityResearch Group,School of Science andTechnology, The Universityof Northampton, NN26JD, UK;

关键词: Birds;    Cambridgeshire;    historical records;    Jenyns;    land use change;    long-term;    population;    qualitative data;   

DOI  :  10.1515/eje-2015-0005

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

Studies that examine changes in the populations of flora and fauna often do so against a baseline of relativelyrecent distribution data. It is much rarer to see evaluations of population change over the longer–term in orderto extend the baseline back in time. Here, we use two methods (regression analysis and line of equality) toidentify long-term differences in abundance derived from qualitative descriptions, and we test the efficacy ofthis approach by comparison with contemporary data. We take descriptions of bird population abundance inCambridgeshire, UK, from the first half of the 19th century and compare these with more recent estimates byconverting qualitative descriptions to an ordinal scale. We show, first, that the ordinal scale of abundance correspondswell to quantitative estimates of density and range size based on current data, and, second, that thetwo methods of comparison revealed both increases and declines in species, some of which were consistentusing both approaches but others showed differing responses. We also show that the regional rates of extinction(extirpation) for birds are twice as high as equivalent rates for plants. These data extend analyses of avifaunalchange back to a baseline 160-190 years before present, thus bringing a novel perspective on long-term changein populations and categories of conservation concern (e.g., Amber- or Red-lists) based on recent data. Changesin status are discussed in relation to various factors, although perhaps the most pervasive were of anthropogenicorigin.

【 授权许可】

Unknown