Time-domain multi-state markov model for engine system reliability analysis

Mechanical Engineering Journal

卷:3

Kong Fah TEE¹  Wenliang TAO²  Yongfeng FANG² 

[1] Department of Engineering Science University of Greenwich;

[2] School of Mechanical Engineering Guizhou University of Engineering Science;

关键词: multi-state;    engine system;    markov;    reliability;    time response;   

DOI  :  10.1299/mej.16-00084

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

A novel reliability-based approach has been developed for multi-state engine systems. Firstly, the output power of the engine is discretized and modeled as a discrete-state continuous-time Markov random process. Secondly, the multi-state Markov model is established. According to the observed data, the transition intensity is determined. Thirdly, the proposed method is extended to compute the forced outage rate and the expected engine capacity deficiency based on time response. The proposed method can therefore be used for forecasting and monitoring the reliability of the multi-state engine utilizing time-domain response data. It is illustrated that the proposed method is practicable, feasible and gives reasonable prediction which conforms to the engineering practice.

【 授权许可】

Unknown