Comparison of Meteorological- and Agriculture-Related Drought Indicators across Ethiopia

Water

卷:11

Farhang. Forghanparast¹  Stephen. Ekwaro-Osire²  Venkatesh Uddameri³  ElmaAnnette. Hernandez³  Dawit Teweldebirhan Tsige³ 

[1] Department of Civil, Environmental and Construction Engineering, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX 79409, USA;

[2] Department of Mechanical Engineering, Jimma Institute of Technology, Jimma University, Jimma, Ethiopia;

[3] Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Jimma Institute of Technology, Jimma University, Jimma, Ethiopia;

关键词: pdsi;    z-index;    receiver operating characteristics (roc);    spi;    spei;    gis;    food security;    droughts;   

DOI  :  10.3390/w11112218

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

Meteorological drought indicators are commonly used for agricultural drought contingency planning in Ethiopia. Agricultural droughts arise due to soil moisture deficits. While these deficits may be caused by meteorological droughts, the timing and duration of agricultural droughts need not coincide with the onset of meteorological droughts due to soil moisture buffering. Similarly, agricultural droughts can persist, even after the cessation of meteorological droughts, due to delayed hydrologic processes. Understanding the relationship between meteorological and agricultural droughts is therefore crucial. An evaluation framework was developed to compare meteorological- and agriculture-related drought indicators using a suite of exploratory and confirmatory tools. Receiver operator characteristics (ROC) was used to understand the covariation of meteorological and agricultural droughts. Comparisons were carried out between SPI-2, SPEI-2, and Palmer Z-index to assess intraseasonal droughts, and between SPI-6, SPEI-6, and PDSI for full-season evaluations. SPI was seen to correlate well with selected agriculture-related drought indicators, but did not explain all the variability noted in them. The correlation between meteorological and agricultural droughts exhibited spatial variability which varied across indicators. SPI is better suited to predict non-agricultural drought states than agricultural drought states. Differences between agricultural and meteorological droughts must be accounted for in order to devise better drought-preparedness planning.

【 授权许可】

Unknown