Potential Distribution of Invasive Boxwood Blight Pathogen (Calonectriapseudonaviculata) as Predicted by Process-Based and Correlative Models

Biology

卷:11

Chuanxue Hong¹  Leonard Coop²  Brittany S. Barker² 

[1]Hampton Roads Agricultural Research and Extension Center, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, 1444 Diamond Springs Road, Virginia Beach, VA 23455, USA

[2]|Oregon Integrated Pest Management Center, Oregon State University, 4575 Research Way, Corvallis, OR 97331, USA

关键词: Buxus;    invasive plant pathogen;    biological invasion;    climatic suitability;    CLIMEX;    ensemble model;   

DOI  :  10.3390/biology11060849

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

Boxwood blight caused by Cps is an emerging disease that has had devastating impacts on Buxus spp. in the horticultural sector, landscapes, and native ecosystems. In this study, we produced a process-based climatic suitability model in the CLIMEX program and combined outputs of four different correlative modeling algorithms to generate an ensemble correlative model. All models were fit and validated using a presence record dataset comprised of Cps detections across its entire known invaded range. Evaluations of model performance provided validation of good model fit for all models. A consensus map of CLIMEX and ensemble correlative model predictions indicated that not-yet-invaded areas in eastern and southern Europe and in the southeastern, midwestern, and Pacific coast regions of North America are climatically suitable for Cps establishment. Most regions of the world where Buxus and its congeners are native are also at risk of establishment. These findings provide the first insights into Cps global invasion threat, suggesting that this invasive pathogen has the potential to significantly expand its range.

【 授权许可】

Unknown