Predicting Future Urban Flood Risk Using Land Change and Hydraulic Modeling in a River Watershed in the Central Province of Vietnam

Remote Sensing

卷:13

Quoc-Huy Nguyen¹  Dennis Fox²  Alexandru-Ionut Petrisor³  Thi Ngoc Dang⁴  Phuong Lan Vu⁴  Le Tuan Pham⁴  Huu Duy Nguyen⁴  Van Truong Tran⁴  Thi Ha Thanh Nguyen⁴  Quan VuViet Du⁴  Quang-Thanh Bui⁴  Dinh Kha Dang⁵  Tien Giang Nguyen⁵ 

[1] Centre for Applied Research in Remote Sensing and GIS, Faculty of Geography, VNU University of Science, Vietnam National University, 334 Nguyen Trai, Thanh Xuan district, Hanoi 10000, Vietnam;

[2] Department of Geography, Université Côte d’Azur, UMR ESPACE CNRS, 98 Blvd Edouard Herriot, 06204 Nice, France;

[3] Doctoral School of Urban Planning, Ion Mincu University of Architecture and Urbanism, 010014 Bucharest, Romania;

[4] Faculty of Geography, VNU University of Science, Vietnam National University, 334 Nguyen Trai, Thanh Xuan district, Hanoi 10000, Vietnam;

[5] Faculty of Hydrology, Meteorology and Oceanography, VNU University of Science, Vietnam National University, 334 Nguyen Trai, Thanh Xuan district, Hanoi 10000, Vietnam;

关键词: urban;    risk flood;    hazard;    exposure;    vulnerability;    land cover change;   

DOI  :  10.3390/rs13020262

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

Flood risk is a significant challenge for sustainable spatial planning, particularly concerning climate change and urbanization. Phrasing suitable land planning strategies requires assessing future flood risk and predicting the impact of urban sprawl. This study aims to develop an innovative approach combining land use change and hydraulic models to explore future urban flood risk, aiming to reduce it under different vulnerability and exposure scenarios. SPOT-3 and Sentinel-2 images were processed and classified to create land cover maps for 1995 and 2019, and these were used to predict the 2040 land cover using the Land Change Modeler Module of Terrset. Flood risk was computed by combining hazard, exposure, and vulnerability using hydrodynamic modeling and the Analytic Hierarchy Process method. We have compared flood risk in 1995, 2019, and 2040. Although flood risk increases with urbanization, population density, and the number of hospitals in the flood plain, especially in the coastal region, the area exposed to high and very high risks decreases due to a reduction in poverty rate. This study can provide a theoretical framework supporting climate change related to risk assessment in other metropolitan regions. Methodologically, it underlines the importance of using satellite imagery and the continuity of data in the planning-related decision-making process.

【 授权许可】

Unknown