Spatial Analysis of Seasonal Precipitation over Iran: Co-Variation with Climate Indices

ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information

卷:9

Shahaboddin Shamshirband¹  Somayeh Salehi²  Majid Dehghani³  Pedram Ghamisi⁴  Narjes Nabipour⁵  Amir Mosavi⁶ 

[1] Department for Management of Science and Technology Development, Ton Duc Thang University, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam;

[2] Department of Civil Engineering, Technical and Engineering Faculty, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman 93630, Iran;

[3] Department of Civil Engineering, Technical and Engineering Faculty, Vali-e-Asr University of Rafsanjan, P.O. Box 518, Rafsanjan, Iran;

[4] Exploration Division, Helmholtz Institute Freiberg for Resource Technology, Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden-Rossendorf, D-09599 Freiberg, Germany;

[5] Institute of Research and Development, Duy Tan University, Da Nang 550000, Vietnam;

[6] School of the Built Environment, Oxford Brookes University, Oxford OX3 0BP, UK;

关键词: spatiotemporal database;    spatial analysis;    seasonal precipitation;    spearman correlation coefficient;    pacific decadal oscillation;    southern oscillation index;    climate model;    earth system science;    climate informatics;    atmospheric model big data;    advanced statistics;    probabilistic ensemble forecasting;    north atlantic oscillation;   

DOI  :  10.3390/ijgi9020073

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

Temporary changes in precipitation may lead to sustained and severe drought or massive floods in different parts of the world. Knowing the variation in precipitation can effectively help the water resources decision-makers in water resources management. Large-scale circulation drivers have a considerable impact on precipitation in different parts of the world. In this research, the impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on seasonal precipitation over Iran was investigated. For this purpose, 103 synoptic stations with at least 30 years of data were utilized. The Spearman correlation coefficient between the indices in the previous 12 months with seasonal precipitation was calculated, and the meaningful correlations were extracted. Then, the month in which each of these indices has the highest correlation with seasonal precipitation was determined. Finally, the overall amount of increase or decrease in seasonal precipitation due to each of these indices was calculated. Results indicate the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), NAO, and PDO have the most impact on seasonal precipitation, respectively. Additionally, these indices have the highest impact on the precipitation in winter, autumn, spring, and summer, respectively. SOI has a diverse impact on winter precipitation compared to the PDO and NAO, while in the other seasons, each index has its special impact on seasonal precipitation. Generally, all indices in different phases may decrease the seasonal precipitation up to 100%. However, the seasonal precipitation may increase more than 100% in different seasons due to the impact of these indices. The results of this study can be used effectively in water resources management and especially in dam operation.

【 授权许可】

Unknown