Is the status of gold threatened by Bitcoin?

Ekonomska Istraživanja

卷:33

Meng Qin¹  Xiaoyan Zhang²  Ran Tao³  Chi-Wei Su⁴ 

[1] Graduate Academy, Party School of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, National Academy of Governance;

[2] National Academy of Economic Strategy, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences School of Finance, Shanxi University of Finance & Economics;

[3] Qingdao Municipal Center for Disease Control & Preventation, Non-communicable Chronic Disease;

[4] School of Economics, Qingdao University;

关键词: bitcoin price;    gold price;    granger causality;    time-varying;   

DOI  :  10.1080/1331677X.2020.1718524

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

This paper evinces the ability of gold to avoid risks during periods with great fluctuations in the Bitcoin market. We apply bootstrap full- and subsample rolling-window Granger causality tests to explore the causal relationship between Bitcoin price (BCP) and gold price (GP). The empirical results show that an increase in BCP can cause GP to decrease, indicating that the prosperity of the Bitcoin market undermines the hedging ability of gold. However, a decrease in BCP causes GP to increase, and it also emphasizes that the ability of gold to avoid risks persists. Hence, the status of gold will not be completely threatened by Bitcoin, and they are complementary to each other instead of in competition. In turn, both positive and negative influences of GP on BCP suggest that fluctuations in BCP can be predicted through the gold market. In situations of severe global uncertainty and complicated investment environments, investors can benefit from complementary markets to optimize their asset allocation. Additionally, countries can grasp the trends in Bitcoin and gold prices to prevent large fluctuations in both markets and to reduce the uncertainty of the financial system.

【 授权许可】

Unknown