An experimental study on cumulative prospect theory learning model of travelers’ dynamic mode choice under uncertainty

International Journal of Transportation Science and Technology

卷:6

Xiangdong Xu¹  Chao Yang¹  Lianyan Zhao¹  Binbin Liu² 

[1] Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering of the Ministry of Education, Tongji University, 4800 Cao’an Road, Shanghai 201804, China;

[2] Shanghai Municipal Engineering Design Institute (Group) Co., Ltd., China;

关键词: Mode choice;    Travel time variability;    Cumulative prospect theory;    Payoff variability effect;   

DOI  :  10.1016/j.ijtst.2017.07.002

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

In this paper, we examined travelers’ dynamic mode choice behavior under travel time variability. We found travelers’ inconsistent risk attitudes through a binary mode choice experiment. Although the results deviated from the traditional utility maximization theory and could not be explained by the payoff variability effect, they could be well captured in a cumulative prospect theory (CPT) framework. After considering the imperfect memory effect, we found that the prediction ability of the cumulative prospect theory learning (CPTL) model could be significantly improved. The experimental results were also compared with the CPTL model and the reinforcement learning (REL) model. This study empirically showed the potential of alternative theories to better capture travelers’ day-to-day mode choice behavior under uncertainty. A new definition of willingness to pay (WTP) in a CPT framework was provided to explicitly consider travelers’ perceived value increases in travel time.

【 授权许可】

Unknown